This is the first in a series of interviews with international experts on Korea to discuss pending issues surrounding the nation on the occasion of the beginning of 2018 ― ED.
U.S., S. Korea urged to be more aggressive on N. Korea's cyber attacks
By Kim Jae-kyoung
China should play a bigger role in reining in North Korea if it doesn't want to see the deployment of more U.S. missile defense batteries here, according to a renowned North Korea expert based in the U.S.
He said that President Moon Jae-in should take a more sophisticated approach toward China to achieve dual goals ― preserving the nation's right to self-defense and restoring strained relations with China.
"The Moon administration needs to walk a very fine line, insisting as a matter of principle that it has a right to self-defense while exploring defensive options that suit the circumstances," said Stephan Haggard, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, in an interview.
Haggard is the director of the Korea-Pacific Program at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.
He said there are plenty of other defensive systems that South Korea might explore beyond the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system calling for the Moon administration to do as it sees fit.
"What the U.S. worries about is not THAAD per se, but Beijing's perception that it can dictate defense policy to Seoul or to any country in the region," he said.
"If China wants to reduce the need for systems such as THAAD it should continue to work closely with the U.S., South Korea and the other five parties on the North Korea problem."
He downplayed concerns that Moon is tipping the diplomatic balance in favor of China over the U.S.
From his perspective, the U.S. has an interest in seeing a positive, forward-looking China-South Korea relationship but there will always be tension if Beijing seeks to use its political and economic weight to pressure Seoul or to weaken the alliance.
"I see this as something that Korea simply has to manage on an ongoing basis, not as a problem that can be definitively solved unless China shifts ground," he said.
Haggard, who also serves as visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, dismissed criticism that Moon's two-track policy toward North Korea ― seeking dialogue and imposing sanctions at the same time ― was wrong.
He believes that Moon's strategy is actually not different from that of the Trump administration except for subtle points of emphasis, such as a willingness to participate in humanitarian aid.
"Both the U.S. and Korea are currently pursuing a strategy that relies on both pressure and a willingness to talk," he said.
‘Declaring red lines is a mistake'
On a question of what should be a red line North Korea should not cross, the North Korea expert said, "Declaring red lines is a mistake."
"The only red lines that need to be made clear, and I think the Trump administration has actually been clear on this, is that the U.S. stands ready to respond in full force to any attack on our allies," he said.
Haggard has said Washington and Seoul should be more aggressive about Pyongyang's cyber attacks.
The Trump administration has officially blamed Pyongyang for carrying out the May 2017 WannaCry ransomware attack, which had significant material effect in Britain and elsewhere.
"The U.S., South Korea and Japan should be seriously considering not only defensive responses to such actions but offensive actions, showing North Korea that the US and its allies have the power to disrupt as well as defend," he said.
He expects that the Kim Jong-un regime will continue to conduct missile and nuclear tests but the pace will slow.
"North Korea has been saying that it is close to completing its nuclear deterrent. This could mean a slowdown in testing and even a pause, which could open a window for negotiation," he said.
"But given the investment they have made and the status of the program within the domestic political economy, I am doubtful that they are interested in denuclearization unless forced to shift as a result of outside pressure," he added.
Haggard remains positive about the possibility of talks between Washington and Pyongyang.
He said that the U.S. has channels to the North Koreans, and has almost certainly communicated with them.
"Despite the rhetoric, I honestly believe that the Trump administration would be willing to return to negotiations, even swiftly."
‘Freeze-for-freeze not impossible'
The problem in his view is that the U.S. has no interest in talks that do not include a commitment to denuclearization, even if other issues such as sanctions relief, a peace regime or security assurances are on the table.
He said that China's "freeze-for-freeze" proposal to simultaneously halt North Korean nuclear and missile testing and joint military exercises by South Korea and the U.S. can be an option for finding a breakthrough.
"Ideas such as the freeze for freeze are not impossible if embedded in a clear path to meaningful talks," he said.
Haggard said that regardless of North Korea's nuclear capabilities, the U.S. will never accept that the reclusive country is a de facto nuclear power as this would undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
He explained that through deterrent and defensive actions, the U.S., Korea and Japan are seeking to neutralize the risks associated with the North's nuclear weapons program.
"Maintaining these capabilities, including through cooperation with U.S. alliance partners, is an aspect of getting North Korea to the table and of seeking to uphold the Non-Proliferation Treaty," he said.
（作者：汽车电瓶）